Friday, November 16, 2012

A Nice End to the Week

I liked today's end of the week, it didn't leave me with an annoying question in my head that I knew I'd spend hours over the weekend trying to solve. The market showed some real changes in character, even though that process has been underway for weeks (which should give you an idea of what we could be dealing with) and did so on an op-ex day.

The TICK charts were beautiful, the way credit acted the last 3 days and closed today as well as FCT were beautiful (get that run of the stops/bear trap set), even the way AAPL closed was nice, a big hammer with huge volume which is one of our concepts that is a high probability reversal, plus AAPL not only took out the bearish descending triangle and trapped shorts, but the longer term support @ $522.18 which is what traders are looking at for a large H&S, that level was shaken out today as well.

The Euro showed some good underlying trade signals, the $USD popped convincingly above resistance (head fake move) and saw negative divergences the whole day (distribution of the move) which sets the $USD up for a fall, which is something we have been looking for and have found increasingly important.

The flight to safety trades such as Treasuries saw sharp negative divergences to go with their longer term ones, but I mean sharp specifically today.

There were a bunch of little signals that you could see if you paid close attention and they all add up to higher probabilities. What really struck me were the ES 3C charts in timeframes from 5-60 minutes, I think we've been using futures/3C for close to  year now and I don't recall ever seeing such clear divergences across all timeframes.

I'll be working on a new indicator this weekend and of course looking out for any new information, which I will post if I find it.

I hope you have a great weekend and profitable week ahead!


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