I can't help but feel like I should be picking up longs right now, but on the other hand I've already prepared and it also feels very much like an op-ex pin today. The 1 min negative divergences look like we see selling in to the close, but the 5 min charts which would have accrued momentum from the last 2-3 days of very heavy 3C momentum, heavier than I remember seeing it in a long time keep me from really becoming very concerned with intraday trade. The TICK chart is more recent evidence, the Leading Indicators, Credit, the way the market rebounded off today's lows and how it took so many stocks with it (TICK) etc.
Here's a quick look, I will be looking around though for longs/shorts that look like they have good probabilities because today just feels like a waiting game or the calm before the storm.
DIA 1 min is more or less in line, kind of like the waiting game I mentioned above as today is Op-Ex.
ES positive divergence at that low and large volume on the move up, that hasn't been the norm, it's been exactly the opposite, and light volume at the neg. divergence. As the market was moving down it was light volume rallies pushed by algos and then heavy volume sell-offs, this is exactly the opposite.
IWM 1 min
IWM 5 min
NASDAQ 1 min Futures
QQQ 1 min
I already showed you, but here it is again, QQQ 15 min with a huge move in 2.5 days
SPY 1 min pretty close to in line, but with a relative negative divergence.
The TICK
If I could show you a longer 1 min chart I would, note the extreme lows over the last 2 days , the median and the extreme highs. Do you see the change in character in the trend?
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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