Initial Early Overnight Indications

I really love the day when the market gives strong indications and I can finish up work at 6 or 7 pm, with the exception of a few things I keep an eye on, but a day like today is more difficult, although as I showed many times today, I stick with the longer timeframes when there's any doubt and those were clearly negative just as I expected late last week with the opinion, "We'll see market weakness early next week".

Well other than charts, the fundamental news that is unravelling as we go can't even be counted on. Less than an hour after the "Greece is fixed" announcement we saw EU officials say it was "Unclear how long Greek talks would continue", of course implying that no definitive deal had been reached and just to make that more clear, an EU official said, "Greek talks are still ongoing". 

Almost 2 hours later we have a webcast that outlines a number o the initiatives that I said in the original plan were, "Unclear". Apparently the press conference fills in the details, but it looks like the original announcement was probably pretty close to on track with additional details filled in at the press conference.

Apparently among the initiatives that I assume are part of the reduction of Greek debt that the EU and IMF agreed upon to get Greece to 124% debt to GDP by 2020, those seem to include:

Greek debt buybacks 

-Return of Securities Market Programme (SMP) profits to Greece

-A reduction of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) interest rates 

-Significant extension of GLF and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) maturities 

-The deferral of EFSF interest rate payments.

In any case, I let some time pass before looking at futures and while these are early indications, they are indications that I think have enough time behind them to be valid, I'll of course update any significant changes or signals as I see them.

Earlier today the signals in futures were absolute mush, they looked like this:

The arrow is the open, this is useless mush, but I do believe it is a fair representation of what the short term underlying trade was reflecting-chaos.

Since then, signals have improved dramatically.

Lets take a look at some signals...

 ES 1 min with  relative negative divergence, also there's a leading negative divergence between the two in the red box.

 On a 5 min ES chart we can already see a hint of a negative divergence that has started with a decent size relative negative divergence, this is a significant change of character on this chart.

 The NASDAQ Futures 1 min chart are seeing a small relative followed by a larger leading negative divergence. This particular divergence is pretty ugly for being so new.

 Here's the EUR/USD 5 min chart with what is a very clear negative divergence.

 Remember an hour or two ago I mentioned a head fake scenario above $1.30 out of this triangle? I also mentioned it early today, this could very well be it especially with the chart above.

Here's the Euro hitting the $1.30 area with 2 failures thus far, but the idea for a head fake move is to draw in the longs so I suspect we'd need a stronger move above $1.30. Should the negative divergences continue, we have the clearest signal of the day, except in overnight trade.

For now it's time to let the market develop and to eat some dinner.