Greece Puts the Euro in Play

So if you were watching the EUR/USD pair as it has been in a triangle all day (and thus kept the market in a narrow range all day) you may have noticed something happened...

 Here's the triangle in orange the Euro has been in since late last night, in green a breakout which can only mean one thing, the Euro-Group/Fin-Min meeting came to some resolution that benefits Greece.

 However it's way too early to start chiseling this in to stone (I do think the Euro passes the $1.30 mark which is psychologically very important and I think it takes the market on a ride much higher through probably at least the rest of the year, of course with scattered shakeout moves. This is the cycle we have been watching under construction since late October.

However, no matter which way the Greek situation went (and I think everyone knew Greece wouldn't be allowed to default) the uptrend in the Euro followed by one of the most recognizable price patterns, a symmetrical triangle, almost demands a head fake move as it is like taking money from a baby. Longs will buy the breakout and when the market lets price drop a bit, longs start selling at a loss, shorts come in and about that time it is reversed back to the upside, this time forcing new shorts to cover. You see what I mean, the longs and the shorts can both be hit on this pattern so I wouldn't assume this is what we will see tomorrow morning yet based on seeing it now. Also as I said, the Greek situation was going to be resolved one way or another, it was just "when?" so I don't think this is a surprise. I have to take a look at the particulars to see if there are any surprises in there, just about EVERY EU solution we have seen, there have been holes in them that sent the market's initial optimism dropping back down and these are almost always obvious immediately-there simply isn't a good solution.

Here's a closer look at the move, EUR $1.30 is coming up and is the first real test of this move.

More on the Greek solution soon...