I mentioned the way the longer timeframe charts are developing today, this is also a larger signal (the longer the timeframe, the larger the signal) and the heavier the underlying trade.
The short term timeframes almost look like algos lifting retail bids in the very short intraday while the larger institutional money is sneaking out the backdoor.
Here are some examples (I also will check leading indicators next).
DIA leading negative divergence, not huge, but note the timeframe, 15 mins! That's an important timeframe and for it to see a negative divergence right at a head fake move and continue lower through today isn't what you'd expect to see based on intraday charts thus far. It's not just here though....
IWM 10 min is leading negative at a VERY specific spot, mostly today and right in a flat range (ranges are where we see most institutional activity-there are many reasons, but think VWAP as a primary one).
QQQ 10 min with a leading negative divergence exclusive to today. I don't think this hurts our longer term perspective at all, but clearly there's more going on here than what the market is showing through price alone.
The RIMM chart with a leading positive divergence, actually huge for the timeframe and then on the upgrade and gap up and equally, if not more impressive leading negative divergence in to the demand of retail on the upgrade. RIMM long term is still strong, but near term this doesn't look good.
SPY 3 min continues lower, this looks as it should for an intraday chart.
This is why we compare as much as possible and look at as many charts as we can, you never know where you'll find something important.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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