Monday, November 26, 2012

The Last 6 Minutes

There was an obvious push/ramp to try to get the SPX to close in the green, they missed by -.21% but did manage to hold 1400, they did get the IWM/Russell 2k up, they tried for the Dow, but didn't make it -0.34% and the NDX pushed through the range of the last hour to close up +0.45%. Typically the IWM/Russell 2000 leads risk on moves, however today AAPL's weight gave the NASDAQ 100 the edge.

The final TICK reading still wasn't anything exciting like we saw last week when the market was coming off the bottom and hitting +1800.

Today's NYSE TICK (the number of advancing stocks minus the number of declining stocks for that bar) was very mellow, spending most of the day between -750 and +750, both luke warm readings with no clear breadth winner. The afternoon ramp is obvious as the TICK moves above zero around 3:45 to hit some +1000 to +1150 readings, not bad, but even with a ramp, not that impressive or rather I should say it doesn't stand out.

High Yield Corporate and Junk Credit ended the day almost in line with the SPX, High Yield on its own didn't fare so well and instead sold off from the open right to the close so when the market moved up intraday from about 11-11:30 HY Credit just kept moving lower.

Yields also lagged on the day along with commodities which broke off with the SPX around 11:25 and headed lower as the SPX moved up intraday-still missing the closing green target. That was an interesting move in commodities because they are very US dollar sensitive.

As for sector performance, like the market in many ways, it remained almost totally unchanged on the day, it was like a market frozen in time waiting to see what comes out of the meeting of the European task masters.

I'm going to run some scans and see if there's anything obvious sticking out that I'm missing, but on the whole I think both the ECB and the IMF threw the market for a loop with news that for now has balanced the market out, which way it tips, toward the ECB or toward the IMF "should" be the deciding factor, but I don't really believe anything unless/until I can confirm the probabilities. One thing that did stand out were treasuries, they were in a place we expected them to be, but a place they didn't really belong in quite yet according to where the market was.





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