Friday, December 28, 2012

Gold / GLD Follow up

Yesterday I posted a "Quick Look at Gold / GLD"

As I said in the post, the reason for it being a "Quick" look was,

"beyond the very short term, it's difficult to make heads or tails of what we have on the charts, when we have a situation like that we don't have an edge and when we don't have an edge, there's no point in trying to guess, either wait for the edge or move on to the next candidate."

The gist of the post was GLD short term (as in today) was going to see weakness. There were several other charts that were more speculative than anything, but as far as the short term goes (as I am getting emails about it), here's what we have...

 Note the Hammer (bullish reversal candle) on heavy volume, it did what it was supposed to.

 As far as yesterday's note about weakness today, here's the open, but there is some intraday support and some small signal there.

 This is the 2 min chart that is positive or starting to go positive at intraday support, as of now in my view this is not actionable, it's not a buy, but it's worth keeping tabs on to see if it leads to something bigger.

We still have near term pressure on GLD with this 5 min negative divergence so I would want to see at least the 5 min chart repaired before considering any long position in GLD and I'd want to see an intraday move up and the intraday charts fall apart before I considered any short term position in GLD.

If I were to take either trade, I'd used a leveraged ETF for a short term trade, I would not use options as the signals are not strong enough to meet the standard I have to apply that much leverage, the reason I would prefer a 2-3x leveraged ETF is because GLD's longer term and even intermediate term signals are not clear so as a short term trade, I'd want some leverage to make the profit potential worthwhile.

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