GOOG Trade Idea

This is the GOOG trade concept, unfortunately I'm already set with the GOOG short position so I can't add any more here, but if I could this is what I'd be considering and looking at.

 This yellow box is what I consider to be GOOG's breakout/HEAD-FAKE move, for such a breakout GOOG certainly hasn't been able to ad much to it in the way of follow through. If you don't understand the head fake concept, please read the links about it on the member's site, but we see these moves in approx. 80% of reversals to the upside or down.

 Because a new range or resistance area has been created, a move above that would also not be surprising, although the chart above is in my view the real head fake, the move above local resistance would just be a bonus like the way they hit all the VIX stops in the last 1/10th of a second of trade on 2/19 before the reversal on 2/20.


 This is the daily negative divergence, ever since the last top in September, GOOG has been unable to move to confirmation and instead remains leading negative.

 The 15 min chart shows a leading negative divergence too, guess where? Exactly where the break above resistance is, the head fake area, which would make sense because this is what a head fake is meant to do, bring in buyers on a breakout to new highs which allows Wall St. to sell or sell short in to higher prices and most importantly for their position sizes, DEMAND.

The first Trend Channel break would be around $780, you can wait until then, but I've been able to ride out GOOG for some time and never exceed a 2% portfolio loss. I might consider a partial position here if you like GOOG short and leave room to add in case the local highs are broken, then add to the position, but this has to be part of your risk management plan before you enter, not some sort of dollar cost averaging.

I don't see GOOG risk here as being very bothersome.