Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Goldman Sachs-GS and others

GS is really growing on me as a short position, if it can be had a little higher with the signals still remaining negative, I think I'd have to give it some serious consideration, honestly that might be even a bit myopic, it's probably just as good right in this area, it's more about timing it right so the risk is lower and there's less chance for drawdown.

Of course GOOG is on my list as well, here are a few other shorts that I have either positions in or would like to this is assuming the 3C signals and the price behavior is favorable to a low risk/high probability entry.

PCLN
DE
IBM
AMZN (*this really need to be at the right place)
TJX (ideally above $46)
BEAV *** I am liking this one more every day, strategically I think it's there, it's just tactical now


Longs

UNG of course, this is a long term position, almost like an investment
AMD at least short term, I think there's an argument to be made for longer term
ZNGA This is a great base
GLD as long as it keeps acting well


ETFs (both long and short exposure) Long

If the market conditions are decent, I do like ETFs at the start of a new move until about the first correction, by then you start to get an idea for which sectors and stocks are going to be the best choices to replce those ETFs, so on the initial reversal you are long the ETF and when the first correction starts to show you move out of the ETF and as the correction is about to end, enter the equity short (or  long). 

ETFs (long) don't allow you the same advantage that being short a stock does, that is explained in an article I wrote years ago on www.Trade-Guild.net called, "Making More Than 100% on a Short".

As for ETFs that I like that we already have a position established or that should be in good position soon:

FAZ
ERY/SCO -*Longer term right now I prefer ERY, but SCO looks as if it will make some appearances.
SPXU, SQQQ, SRTY, SDOW (for market coverage-these can overlap with other assets so you want to be careful not to have too much correlation, like having SQQQ-3x Short QQQ and being short AAPL, long TECS, etc. or having SRTY 3x Short Russell 2000 and also having a short small cap ETF.
UVXY *for very short term trades
VXX *I prefer this as a longer term play on volatility

This is not a shopping list, it's just some of the positions we are in, some I think will be in decent position for add-to trades or new positions, but as always the market determines the trade and the tool.

I'd prefer not to have more than 6 positions, I think you can cover rotation with 6 and you don't dilute your gains by being over-diversified which is another Wall Street propaganda ploy to help sell Mutual Funds back when 401ks were the rage as Mutual Funds by law couldn't hold more than 5% in any one position, meaning they needed to have at least 20 positions by law, so Wall Street spun this in to "Diversification", if you have decent risk management you can protect yourself way better than diversification or Modern Portfolio Theory.

You don't want too much correlation, although the F_E_D over the last several years has made that a moot point as everything has either been "Risk on" or "Risk off", but in a healthy market you'll see rotation. I can theoretically diversify enough using the 4 averages and 2 inverse versions of them for counter trend rallies or hedging.

DIA- Gives me large Cap exposure
IWM- Gives me small cap exposure
SPY- Gives me exposure to Financials and some Energy 
QQQ- Givs me Tech exposure

So I've covered my main bases, Financials, Energy and Tech as well as Large Caps and Small Caps. I'd still say this has too much correlation, but it can and has worked. 

If you have 6 positions you don't want to be short the QQQ, long TECS and short AAPL- there you have a huge amount of correlation all to Tech, half your portfolio, that's asking for trouble or at least diminished performance, we can always change weighting on the fly just as we have traded in and out of this market on the fly.

Just a few ideas/thoughts for you.




No comments: