EIA Nat Gas Report

There was a draw down in Natural Gas in storage this week even larger than last week, hence the initial volatility on the release of the report, the problem is we don't know what consensus was.

Released On 3/28/2013 10:30:00 AM For wk3/22, 2013

Prior Actual Weekly Change -62 bcf -95 bcf

This week the draw was -95 BCF, more than last week's -62BCF, but if consensus expected something much different, that this could be a disappointment even though it appears the fundamentals of supply are positive for Nat. Gas.

I hope you didn't miss the article I posted last night on Nat Gas and Great Britain as the US has some of the largest Nat. Gas reserves. The Russian/EU possible spat and Gazprom doing to Europe next winter what they did to the Ukraine during the "Orange "? Revolution, would be even a greater reason for Nat Gas to soar.

Here's a loo at UNG on the report.

 PErhaps "all gaps must be filled" as some contend now that HFT is here to stay, that means yesterday's gap up and +2.35% gain leaves room for a pullback to fill the gap, otherwise the trend in UNG has been pretty darn impressive since mid-February on a double bottom.

 Here's today's intraday action, you can see where the EIA Nat Gas report was released at 10:30 by the volatility, the first move was to the upside so perhaps it was better than consensus, but this move was sold in to immediately as I'll show you (you can already see above).

 Even the short term X-Over screen is long UNG, the second pullback is usually to the blue 22-day price m.a., although a pullback to the yellow 10-day would fill the gap.

Everything looks good on this screen as a "Hold"

 Even the shortest trend channel still has held the recent trend, as a longer term position (and you can see more and more ways every month why UNG looks to be a real winner) I prefer a wider stop such as the one below.

 A weekly Trend Channel, note the weekly candles also signal a loss of momentum and yesterday's gap looks a little like exhaustion.

 Here's the 1 min chart showing the initial move higher was sold in to right away.

 However where it counts, the trend is confirmed, the chart is signaling a pullback/consolidation, but not dramatic.

The more important 4 hour chart tells the story of underlying flow of money perfectly and it is very healthy.