Thursday, March 28, 2013

Overnight

The overnight session is pretty simple, China enacted new controls over wealth management products which are high yielding products that invest in areas of the economy like real estate, since China is fighting inflation in real estate and in general, these wealth products were targeted, that tells you a little about how serious the situation is in China with inflation and why Japan's Abe and China are on a collision course as each tries to do for their own country while harming the economy of the other.

Futures came back on German retail sales even though unemployment rose.

The Yen fell as a BOJ governor said the first hawkish thing, that they wouldn't buy foreign bonds because it would be seen as currency intervention, that means no US treasuries as well, this sent the Yen up for the first time from a BOJ comment.

South Korea revised their GDP down 5 points! They also said they'd target inflation rates to deal with the new GDP, in essence they just announced their intent to enter the currency wars, China will not be happy.

Finally the EUR/USD and futures rose as Cyprus banks reopened without major incident, but with the capital controls in place, who's rushing to do anything when you can only take out a couple hundred Euro a day, doesn't make for a bank run and that the market saw as good news.

Of course it most likely has more to do with the invisible hand and if we close at SPX highs, we know that to be the truth.

This morning the final US Q$ GDP revision came in at 0.37%, below estimates of 0.5% although better than the second Q4 revision when it was 0.14%.

US Initial Claims in the US missed as well this morning, about the worst print in 5 months, or in essence now we are exiting seasonal adjustment we are getting back to prints that are similar to what we saw before seasonal adjustments.

Finally get your tinfoil hats out....

Remember when I said there was no chance that Cyprus and the Troika could vote on deposit levies Friday night and have them taken or withheld in every account, in every bank on the island, I said it would take on heck of an IT team to do such a thing and as such (as well as the bank of SAXO president having heard rumors a week before), some in the market new and we had a specific "GAP down story" talking about how they were promised (they being the market makers) that they'd be taken care of, just act as if it were business as usual on Friday despite Monday's gap.

Well it seems the evidence is in, while February saw the "Europe is fixed" story and the Dow "New highs", Cypriot banks were seeing the largest withdraws in 3 years, someone knew in advance and was acting on it, actually it seems like it was really no secret at all with this amount of money flowing out a full month before what happened in Cyprus to depositor account happened and here's the proof straight from the Central Bank of Cyprus which probably though no one would take the time to look at it if it didn't have AAPL in the headline.

4 year highs in the out flow of deposits from Cypriot banks in February.

Thank the higher power for those professional networks and if you didn't have one in Russia. you are certainly interviewing them now if you have any cash left.

No comments: