Leading Indicators

I'm putting these up now, at least most because there are some surprising (expected, but surprising in intensity) moves.

 Commodities are showing better relative performance than the SPX, but vs the $USD seen in green above, they aren't nearly as strong as they should be with the $USD down like that today- in fact the SPX should be a lot stronger on a move in the $USD like today's.

 HY Credit is pretty severely dislocated from the SPX, this is where the pros trade vs the SPX.

JNK also a form of HY credit and where the pros trade, it is pretty badly dislocated from the SPX, not too long ago I was saying the long term charts have severe dislocations, now we just need to see the short term charts do the same, this qualifies.

 JNK intraday wants nothing to do with the SPX in its consolidation-probably bounce from there...

 HIO is an asset we use just to judge risk appetite or sentiment, you can see clearly what that is.


This is what I meant about the longer term charts, HIO, are dislocated, we just need the short term, above (both charts) gives us that.

 FCT is used for the same reason, it's not correlated so it's a great asset to judge risk sentiment, pretty bad over the last 2 days, but look at the bigger picture below.

FCT took a massive hit to sentiment, that is a several month new low in 2 days.

 HYG made the recent bowl for support last week, the white areas are HYG credit supporting the SPY Arbitrage.

This is a closer view of HYG intraday-also not wanting to have much to do with any end of day consolidation or bounce.

 3C 1 min on HYG shows exactly what I expected last Monday.

The larger divergence that made the HYG bounces (3) possible is now nearly destroyed and HYG should continue lower shortly.

 $USD v SPX today intraday

The 4 hour chart of $USD/JPY, 3C is very clear here.

TLT short term accumulation trend

TLT 5 min accumulation

 VXX short term-note the last 3 days

10-min is much larger activity, note the last 2 days

SPY/Yen correlation is pretty close intraday (yen green), but..

The Yen jumped from last night, the SPY hasn't caught down to that yet.

Here's the rounding base in the Yen I have been showing, last week I said it's more than half way done and I was surprised it didn't make a head fake shakeout, it did that Friday to support the market, but that also was accumulated and is a good timing signal and especially so given that the rounding bottom is nearly complete and the signal above in the $USD/JPY.

More to come including individual stock analysis, updates and set ups.