Monday, May 20, 2013

Micro-Macro IWM

This is just one average, but it gives a little sense of short term and longer term (especially as it pertains to bull-traps on a scale that is in context with a 4 year move off the 2009 lows).

 IWM intraday. Today's momentum (especially for the in vogue momentum traders) is a lot scarier than the actual percentage performance. It wasn't too many years ago that a 1/2 percent move was considered to be flat and at least a 1 % move was something to take notice of.

The intraday chart is a very sharp leading negative move down.

This migrates to the next timeframe at 2m where the negative divergence or distribution signal starts at Friday's triangle breakout, again, smart money doesn't chase prices higher, retail does. Smart money is in long before and are the ones selling or selling short to satisfy retail's demand until retail doesn't have enough demand to push any higher - at least with this signal.

 5 min also negative at Friday/Today's continuation move.

15 min chart, the pull away from the trend line in parabolic style is always a hint, it looks very strong and bullish, but these are most often the best red flags telling you a change is just around the corner and this is true of any timeframe, look at a daily H&S pattern, the last rally in to the pattern is usually the strongest, more so than the trend leading up to the top.

The 30 min chart's divergence gives some sense of scale as to what a multi-year bull trap-head-fake reversal move would look like, if this were a 1 min chart, the sense of scale would be appropriate here as well.

And the hourly chart from in line at green arrows to negative in 2013 and leading negative.

No comments: