Monday, May 20, 2013

Futures

There's not too much going on in futures that I find really exciting, I do think Crude futures look like they are going to take a spill, gold and silver aren't doing anything that interests me as far as a position right now, the Yen however, after a bit of a pullback looks like it's going to get rolling again to the upside. The Index futures have in most cases, fallen below their 9:30 opening levels (which are different in most cases than the averages themselves as you'll see.

 Es opened at 9:30 at 1662.75 and closed at 4 p.m. at 1664.25, currently at 1663.25. Other than a negative tone, there's nothing jumping off the chart right now.

NQ futures opened at 9:30 at 3018.25 and closed at 3021.25, they are currently at 3020.25

TF-R2K Futures look the worst, opening at 991.90, closing at 996.20, currently at 995.10

As for currencies...
 The USD/JPY made a move higher, note the strength of the positive divergence off a ... HEADFAKE move under the yellow trendline, currently they are negative.

 The daily USD/JPY has a pretty clear divergence that is rarely seen on pairs this far out.

Yen 1 min pulled back as you could probably guess tonight based on the USD/JPY bounce above.

However it looks like the Yen is getting ready to return to its move higher.
 The EUR/JPY with a very negative divergence-since the Euro/AUD single currencies don't look very interesting, it looks like the yen will be the mover here to the upside sending these carry pairs lower, typically not good for risk assets.

The AUD/JPY seems to confirm the same as does the USD/JPY above.

The one interesting future is crude, I've thought it would be moving lower and we have some short positions open, what I see tonight gives me more confidence.

 The 1 min crude futures are negative, but nothing huge, it's the 5 min chart and beyond that get more exciting...

This is the 5 min CL chart, that's a deep leading negative divergence so I'm pretty comfortable with the crude shorts as of now, despite the increased Russian Naval presence around Cyprus/Israel.

The 30 and 60 min crude charts look like a classic head fake move to the upside, great to short in to. If there's an opportunity tomorrow, we'll look at shorts (which some of us entered late last week) and puts if possible.
 Crude 30 m, look at the bounce in to heavy distribution on a strong timeframe.

Crude 60 min. futures, 3C has been right about every top here and it also seems to confirm this bounce as a head fake move used to sell in to on the weak $USD.

If anything interesting pops up overnight, I'll let you know.

I believe it has been something like the last 18 Tuesdays have closed green, I mentioned this earlier today, so tomorrow should either be very nboring or very useful in further information about changes in character that lead to changes in trends.



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