Thursday, August 29, 2013

NFLX Core Short Set-Up

As for the market right now, it has some more downside to go, I'm just collecting names I like, looking at some options, expirations and strikes (although several could be straight long positions like FSLR or IWM using perhaps the 2x leveraged UWM or 3x URTY).

Some of the candidates I do like right now as they come in to the zone (long): XOM, FSLR, IWM, XLK, GOOG.

SHORT: VXX, UVXY.

As for NFLX, I'd nearly short it right here if I didn't feel the way I do about the market and if the price pattern wasn't inviting a head fake move which would be perfectly timed to a major decline, again this is a core short, probably best entered after a bounce and a head fake move above it's resistance, it looks horrible, almost so bad I'd take it here.

The best thing is all you have to do is set a price alert for NFLX > $290.25, it will likely be somewhere above that area where a head fake move will establish and give us even better confirmation as well as a lower risk entry.

 Note the two highs around the $290 area and 3C making a lower high at the second one, that's a negative divergence and actually a leading negative divergence on an important timeframe.

I don't include all the timeframes because they are all bad.
 30 min, same thing, the second high saw heavier distribution than the first.

 5 min intraday, there was VERY little accumulation for the second run up which means they likely bought enough just to get it moving so they could sell in to higher prices.

The fact there's a clear resistance area makes a breakout above that area a technical traders dream, that's what they chase, it will likely see even heavier distribution on such a move, that's what and where we want to look at entering a short and I think a full size equity short or core short position.

For now, I'd at least set an alert for >$290.25 and you can take a look with your own charts, this is stalking the trade, letting it come to us.

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