Thursday, August 29, 2013

***Market Update & Quick Look @ Leading Indicators

At 11:30 with this Market Update I think it was pretty clear the market was going to pullback intraday, but the pullback didn't effect charts beyond 1 min meaning it isn't a strong divergence by any means, it's the kind I'd expect to see if market makers/specialists wanted to lower the market to accumulate in size at lower prices (buy low sell high).

Right now that pullback has started, as I mentioned in the posted linked above, a negative divergence on a 1 min timeframe only has a 50/50 chance of either consolidating sideways or pulling back, when the 2 min chart is added, a pullback becomes an almost certainty.

While this still doesn't weaken the market outlook, we do have 2 min charts right in time for the pullback.
SPY 2 min joins the 1 min negative intraday.

I suspect the market is not showing these signals (in every average to one degree or another) to signal a distribution event, to me it looks more like the market wants to get this pullback done quickly.

I HAVE A FEELING THIS IS THE FIRST AND LAST GOOD AREA TO ADD LONG (SPEC) POSITIONS FOR A MARKET BOUNCE. What I mean in first is that timeframes are coming together, what I mean by last is I don't think this will be much larger than the already large (since 8/16) "W" base in place.

I think a pullback here is truly a gift.

Here are some signals.

 Commodities have fallen off vs the SPX, obviously because of Crude, Gold and Silver action today, we may get a chance to add those positions closed in precious metals earlier today at some point today.

HYG credit is scaled so you can see intraday, but it is leading for the last 3 days now, in addition it is leading intraday, this is a strong market positive and a pullback with this signal is a market gift in my view.

HY credit is holding up as well

The strong USD/JPY has helped knock precious metals down and keep the market up, but I see a high probability of at least a small pullback in the pair which would cause the market to pullback which it is already.

 Yen 1 min futures show a positive divergence, this would cause the USD/JPY trouble moving higher.


Yen 5 min futures, the 5 min chart shows it as more of a counter trend correction so I'm not concerned about it interfering with a bounce.


$USD 1 min futures have a negative intraday, this locks it in, the USD/JPY will likely fall with yen strength and $USD weakness, even if it is just for a short time or intraday.


USD/JPY 1 min futures this is what caused ES to look so good pre-market before the Eco-data came out at 8:30, the USD/JPY acted as the market's engine or motor supporting it and pushing higher until the "Good news is bad news GDP and initial claims" hit. So again, a pullback here, which looks inevitable, should pull the market back, which we've already had signals of, the FX signals just give confirmation. The HYG positive tells us this  pullback is almost certainly best used to buy spec. short term positions for a market bounce.

Positions like FSLR.

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