Wednesday, August 14, 2013

VIX Futures Seeing Some Changes

Intraday VXX has been pretty close to perfectly correlated in price vs the SPX (an inverse or opposite correlation), the longer term VXX (which starts at 5 min) is still very positive so nothing has changed there, but what is interesting is the short term changes just recently, starting yesterday and moving in to today (I pointed out actual VIX Futures positive divergences last night).

 Notice the change in VXX underlying trade while the price correlation is still pretty close to perfect with the SPX?

That's 1 min, for more confirmation...

2 min

3 min, so there's an obvious change here that just got underway yesterday and has shown itself to be a trend starting by carrying through today.

The VXX 5 min chart (longer term) hasn't changed at all, it's still leading positive and very suggestive of a lot of protection being bid which is fear of a market crash or at least severe downdraft...

Also remember the signals in spot VIX as well as the Bollinger Bands posted last night.

For confirmation (I'm not including every time frames)...

UVXY, a leveraged version of VXX managed by a totally different group and...

XIV which is the inverse of VXX and managed by a thrid different group. In other words, these confirming signals wouldn't be there if there wasn't something going on.

This is the 5 min VIX futures posted last night

As I said yesterday, if it weren't for a chart or two in each of the averages still suggesting a bounce, I'd be VERY hard pressed to argue for one.

 HYG 15 min positive

SPY 10 min positive.

There is at least one in the 5 to 10 min range for each of the major averages, not so much in the Index futures.

Something is changing here quickly.

No comments: