Market Update

This market is now at a transitional moment and it's making me a bit nervous, the reason why is we don't have a lot of great intraday signals making it very clear that the probabilities are for an upside move, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, the change in character is significant, it's essentially the first change in over a week and changes in character precede changes in trends.

Here's a basic look...

 SPY 1 min shows what has been the trend for the last week and the change of character today, most people wouldn't pick up on this, but for me it's a glaring change and that's what is making me so nervous as we don't (yet) have signals that would go along with such a significant change.

The trend has been afternoon price strength off morning or early afternoon intraday lows  with the afternoon price strength seeing negative divergences setting up the whole cycle again for the next morning.

Today is the first day we have had almost nothing in terms of afternoon price strength, but more importantly we haven't seen the afternoon negative divergences that have been present 
EVERY DAY for over a week now.

 SPY 2 min with the 3C negatives yesterday afternoon and a relative positive today.

SPY 3 min leading negative with a relative positive in to today (relative divergences are the weakest form and often the first type we see that later develops in to a stronger /longer leading divergence).

SPY 5 min, but this 5 min divergence, even though it is relative, is fairly strong being it's on a 5 min chart.

QQQ

 Afternoon 3C weakness yesterday on the 3 min and another signal that is bothersome, a leading negative divergence, definitely not even close to the changes in character.

 DIA 2 min leading negative yesterday and some relative positives today.

DIA 5 min with the same.

The IWM is where strength in underlying trade seems to be developing first as the IWM should lead any risk-on price moves.

IWM 1 min

A closer look at today's IWM 1 min, keep this chart in mind when I show the Russell 2000 intraday futures.

IWM 2 min obviously has a different character in underlying trade than the other averages or at least the early divergences that would lead a change are showing broader 3C strength.

 However I would have a hard time even taking an IWM position as the 5 min is still leading negative, even though the intraday chart has improved.

This is the Russell 2000 futures on the 1 min chart, the only of the index futures positive. However as pointed out last night when I said "None of the index futures look inspired at all", there's nothing beyond the 1 min chart.

I see no other course here than patience.