Monday, November 18, 2013

MARKET UPDATE: HYG Negative Divergences Taking it Lower

This isn't an asset many of us trade, but it's a very important asset with regard to supporting or inflating the market, in fact, take a look at these two charts and see if you notice anything that might help the market make a head fake move-perhaps partly op-ex related (I'm guessing the pin HAD to be UNDER Dow 16k and SPX 1800).


Notice anything? In case you couldn't see it, HYG is the first chart above and the SPX is the second chart above. The SPX/market being up is not removed from HYG being up, in fact it's a "Chicken or the egg issue", however from our long experience tracking Arbitrage assets that are used to manipulate the market, HYG came first, maybe it's not driving the market by itself, but it is driving.

So then what should we expect from the following?

Friday there were some sudden and deep negative divergences, there are others setting in and another reason this is important is pretty much related to the first reason, "Credit leads, equities follow", it's just which way is it leading?
 This is the 1 min chart with accumulation right before the market made the (likely ) head fake move of the previous 3-days.

Look at the leading negative divegrence from Friday and in to today. Note the dates I have highlighted.


 The 3 min HYG chart is horrible looking, leading negative right after the 3rd day is completed in to OP-EX.


The HYG 5 min chart

And the 10 min HYG chart is seeing migration of the divergence so this looks to be a fairly strong round of distribution, so if that takes HYG lower, you saw how HYG leads the market.

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