""If the intraday charts hold up through the close, then I'd say Monday opens up or in the area, however because of the significant damage already in place, I'd think the most likely scenario would be that it closes down, perhaps that bearish engulfing pattern I was talking about in PCLN, it would fit well in any of the averages as well."
And then last night, "Even though we don't have such an open so far in futures...The rule applies to the averages in regular market so the opening futures Sunday night wouldn't apply, it would be the early trade Monday. Looking at the closing intraday charts, it's a coin toss as some like the SPY held in to the close and others didn't, but all in all, I tend to agree with the basic assumptions of that late Friday post, once again with an additional area highlighted as well..."
As of right now, we are about 1 ES point from the 4 p.m. Friday print, right where we left off.
China had a big night, the Shanghai Comp. was up some 2.87% on both the Chinese Third Plenum reforms and I expect more so on the way China will now calculate GDP, adding "Research and development " costs to the bottom line of GDP, mind you I said ADDING, this is nothing new for the U.S. and Europe so some of those 0.1% prints might have been recessionary had it not been for that neat accounting gimmick, but if the US and Europe are doing it, why shouldn't China compare apples to apples?
Housing inflation in China is still up, but slowing so the PBoC may just be tinkering and tweaking liquidity, we'll see overnight in to tomorrow.
Europe followed China's / Asia's lead and the DAX hit an all-time new high, the FTSE-100 was the laggard.
Other than that, there's nothing too special about futures, the market will pick up pretty close to where it left off, the 16k and 1800 levels will be hit as it's nearly impossible for them not to be this close with such magnetic force of centennial/whole numbers pulling like a tractor beam, it's what happens next.
As mentioned last night, we have a bevy of F_E_D speakers on deck in front of Wednesday's minutes.
Gold still looks like a pullback or it is putting itself back together after the pullback expected last week at least in to the gap.
Oil looks very much like it's continuing to develop the right side of a bottom that we've been expecting for a pretty big upside move so USO will be on the radar today.
Treasury futures are pretty flat, I'm guessing they're in a holding pattern until they hear what the F_E_D speakers have to say.
EUR/JPY was wide chop through the night, USD/JPY looked worse as it looks to be rolling over. AUD/JPY looks to be the best performer, it is choppy, but less of that downside drift and I suppose that's because of the Asian/Chinese markets which the AUD is very sensitive to.
Other than that, it's pretty much a normal Monday a.m., although the media is ready for a 16k/1800 ticker tape parade.
We'll see how things look as we get that business out of the way.
No comments:
Post a Comment