Monday, November 18, 2013

XLK (short) / TECS (long)

As mentioned TECS is already a long trading position in place which is doing fine, I mentioned again I do like TECS (short technology and I made specific mention to AAPL's weakness). I think you might get a chance to look at a position in one of these if you are interested just based on the TICK data at the EOD today.

Note how XLK's daily doesn't look that different than SPY or even IWM below...

 Friday the charts suggested a gap up with a close below Friday's open, a bearish engulfing pattern.

However that doesn't mean there won't or can't be bouncing around this move, although it was a serious move. I have to take a closer look at internals, but the TICK data seemed to indicate the market trying to bounce a bit


 Today was REALLY mellow and TICK was about +/- 750 until later when it hit an extreme of almost -1600.

In to the last hour or so, you can see the TICK trend changing, this is good early warning, so we might just get some opportunities to enter some additional positions on price strength/underlying weakness.

 Here's XLK 10 min, it hasn't confirmed for quite a while. There are reasons I'll hold a position like TECS that may be down (only 5% for a 3X leveragedETF so it's not bad), but the decision I made is based on more than just price, price is one of the most deceptive indications in the market.

 This is the entire cycle from the 10/9 lows, there was accumulation and even a head fake (stop run) move in to those lows. Distribution was heavy in the range area and the head fake move here is the same 3-days as the rest of the market, the previous 3-days and 3C looks worse there.

 This is the 5 min chart, there's clear deterioration where the head fake move is.

And this 3 min trend chart I trust needs no explanation as that is the clearest divergence you can ask for.

 As for TECS, short term charts are difficult because trade is spotty, but it's very clear here on this 3 min chart.

Ot take the 10 min chart's extreme positive divegrence the last 3 days, but especially today.

I don't want to chase anything, but on any strength I think XLK short or TECS long would make for nice trading positions or even ad to's.

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