Monday, November 18, 2013

PCLN Update

I hold a PCLN core short equity position  that is pretty much there, but could be filled out, but I'm not focussing on that, I'm more looking at PCLN  from a trading or Put option perspective (especially the later.)

This is the last PCLN update...

You may recall I liked the breakout on Wednesday, but couldn't add to the core short or open a trading position because I don't believe in "V" reversal events, but more of a process so  I said I was hoping to see something like a few Dojis or Star candlesticks to give PCLN a reversal (rounding) process, so far so good.


 And there they are, with today thus far, I have 3 Star/Dojis and a wider. rounding reversal process in place.

THIS HAS CREATED A NEW PROBLEM, actually maybe it's really not a problem, but a great timing indicator.

The 3 Star/Dojis have created a VERY obvious line of resistance on an intraday chart.


 There it is on a 60 min chart. So I have alerts set for a move above that range around $1145 and I'll be looking immediately because a majority of all reversals have a head fake move, no matter the timeframe.

In this case, that could be used to set up a Put position because I want to buy the put in to price strength and underlying weakness.

THIS ALSO TELLS ME THAT THE TRIANGLES IN THE MARKET ARE LIKELY TO SEE A HEAD FAKE MOVE TO THE UPSIDE BECAUSE PCLN WILL LIKELY NEED THE HELP AND IS IN A WAY, A REFLECTION OF THE BROADER MARKET.


 30 min PCLN leading negative in the range area so that's good, I'd need to see a move above $1145 and charts like 1, 2, 3 and 5 min get real ugly on that move and I'd enter a put position or add to the core short or both (1 as a core trend position, one as a trading position).

 This 3 min chart in the range of Dojis and the same area as the market head fake is perfect, this is the kind of intraday 1 min move I'd like to see not only in PCLN, but market wide.

THIS IS THE KEY, THIS 1 MIN CHART LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE THAT INTRADAY HEAD FAKE MOVE ABOVE THE 3-DAY DOJI RANGE, THIS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE OVERALL MARKET.

SET THOSE ALERTS

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