Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Update

I've been looking around at some different stocks, especially some of the core short positions with nice gains in them like BIDU with a +9% gain and it hasn't even gotten started yet. I was looking to see if it made sense to protect those gains and re-enter them and maybe even enter some long positions for short term trades, BIDU or XLF, but other than some of the ones I've already called out like NFLX or the Q's (but at a particular area in which the trade comes to us for the Q's call /long) I really am not seeing much to motivate me as of yet to make any significant changes.

I can't show everything, but I think the two mentioned above are good examples of the trend I'm seeing overall.

 I was considering whether to protect BIDU (core short) gains and re-enter, but with a 60 min leading negative divergence like this I really need some good reasons, core positions aren't trading positions, they are more trending positions and they're not meant to trade around every jot and tittle in the market.

 BIDU 5 min tells me the probabilities are that BIDU bounces near term, but as I'm always looking at and saying, "Knowing the probabilities is not the same thing as entering a high probability, low risk trade/position".

With pretty much only a 5 min positive, the trade I want to consider here is adding to the BIDU short on any price strength or call it out as the market tells us it's losing momentum as a new position for some that may be interested; that's letting the trade come to you, trading the probabilities with high probabilities, low risk and overall excellent entry timing.

I was also looking at whether it might make sense to close some longs like FAZ, 3x short Financials, especially as they are more of a trading position, but once again...

 The February cycle in XLF and the 60 min leading negative divegrence needs a lot of confirmation for a shorter term move for me to exit and/or reverse the position, even if for only a short time. I have found that during that short time the market tends to surprise you and trade with the highest probabilities like the 60 min chart above in a massive gap down one unsuspecting morning, THE AAPL LESSON!

WHILE XLF DOES HAVE A 10 MINUTE POSITIVE, I THINK I'D REALLY NEED TO SEE SOMETHING MORE AKIN TO THAT "W" BASE IDEA I'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR.

If we had something like that, probabilities for short term trades would increase dramatically and the trade would be coming to us, very different than where we are now.

I'll continue checking and unfortunately this is one of the VERY few days of the year I'll have to turn on CNBC to hear the minutes as I'm watching the charts. I may be a little quiet as we go through the initial release of the minutes, but any edge I see I'll have it to you immediately.

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