Where we go from here

So it sounds like the F_E_D had an emergency meeting on March 4th about forward guidance which was ultimately dropped for qualitative guidance which is essentially arbitrary and difficult for the market to discount, just look at market performance since the last meeting, not exactly inspired.

In any case, the minutes reveal that the F_O_M_C was VERY aware that there was a dichotomy between the "DOTS" regarding where rates would be which is a larger sample of the F_E_D, not just voting members and that was clearly more hawkish, the F_O_M_C policy statement was considered to be more dovish.

The question I have is if the minutes reveal that the F_O_M_C was talking about the problem of this dichotomy in the 2-day meeting, WHY IN THE WORLD WAS YELLEN SO UNPREPARED TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS AT THE PRESS CONFERENCE, I think her best or maybe only answer was, "Who knows why people write down what they write down".

I have an answer for you Ms. Yellen, the rest of the F_E_D (regional Presidents. etc.) are much more hawkish than the F_O_M_C, of course the F_O_M_C makes policy, but voting members DO rotate, we just saw a rotation with Yellen coming in, so the market may take a little time to digest this, remember the knee jerk reaction which seems to be underway right now.

This is what the charts (intraday) looked like just before the minutes and a couple of minutes after, what's important now is what these charts look like in 30 mins or so.


The averages intraday today, we already know we have positives stretching to 10 mins in some cases so upside is not surprising, it's just where the upside is going, when the "Actual" start begins, it could be now in which case I just wait for the next set up (short) or they could move down to that "W" after this initial knee jerk and if charts hold together at that area, we have some long trades that would make sense, but they still are only trades.

 DIA intraday negative

IWM intraday negative

QQQ intraday negative

SPY intraday negative.

Lets see if these hold, if so, there may be a fade trade.