Intraday Market Update & Broad Market Update

I've had some people asking to see a full set of 3C charts which I'm not typically focussed on because I know how bad they are, I'm more focussed on the tactical as the strategic implications are already in place, but we do have a few new members and it's probably about time to put out a full update, I'm going to use the SPY, when you see how many charts there are you'll understand why I don't do all 4 major averages, but there's really not much difference between them. Since this is a long post with at least 15 charts I'm going to work on it through the day as I have time, right now the market is dead in the water ahead of the 2 p.m. EDT release of the F_O_M_C minutes, things should get exciting shortly after that.

I suspect the minutes have been leaked, there's the start of a base or stage 1 cycle set up that we saw late Friday begining and all this week thus far it has gone on except yesterday when it just kind of floundered around which I suspect is so it can be timed with the release of the minutes while the media would say it's "Nervous anticipation ahead of the minuted", I suspect it's something different. 

Once in a while we do catch leaks, we've caught about 3 F_O_M_C policy meeting leaks before the announcement that were clear as day, we also caught the F_E_D red-handed sending out the minutes almost a day and a half in advance to 154 firms (mostly private equity and the big Wall St. investment banks), the F_E_D EMAILED them to these institutional investors and not one of the 154 mentioned to anyone that, "We got these in our email a day and a half ahead of schedule".

Moreover, since when has the F_E_D had a custom email list to distribute data that's suppose to hit the market at the exact same time for all participants? How do I get on that email list? In a normal data release, the HFT's would receive the data (according to NANEX) milliseconds BEFORE it is actually released, so why would email be a faster way unless it's just sent out a day and a half in advance, that beats milliseconds every time.

So I'll be working on the post and watching for any signs of a leak beyond what we've already seen so far this week and also watching for any changes in character as far as what's been built this week.

Remember that almost all F_E_D / F_O_M_C data has the mandatory knee-jerk reaction at first which is usually quite strong and almost always quite wrong, it's usually faded within a day or two, the Sept. 19th announcement of QE3 comes to mind, the initial knee jerk was higher of course until 2:24 p.m. in which the high was put in and the market faded the QE3 announcement for a loss of -8% that wasn't regained until January of the next year.

Right now, the market intraday is divided with the SPY and IWM leaning more to the negative while the DIA is in line and the Q's are somewhere in between. If the SPY makes a deeper leading negative divegrence soon then it might make for a decent day trade using weekly puts.

The SPY intraday 1 min TICK data is deteriorating as well. VXX is accumulating as it should be as I suspect that's what most of this is about as any market bounce seems meant to send the VIX futures lower to their accumulation range which is unidentifiable because they are accumulated on ANY price weakness.

 DIA non confirmation at the open to confirmation.

IWM leading negative intraday

 QQQ with a relative negative divegrence.

SPY leading negative intraday and close to making a lower leading negative low which would change the dynamics and likely send the SPY lower.