TBT (long) / TLT Update

Last week we saw some signals that TLT would likely be coming down which is good because I like it as a long term trend trade (long), but wouldn't want to chase it and have been waiting for a move to $102 for some time, I think we might get it here.

However, looking very near term it looks like TLT will see a short term bounce, perhaps just some backing and filling (maybe not even that-maybe just early signals like the rest of the market), I decided to hold the position(TBT long, 2x short TLT) as it's the longer term signals that got me in to the position, "Plan your trade, trade your plan".

Here are the TBT charts starting with the earliest that look like a bit of a pullback in TBT on an upside TLT correction VERY near term.

 TBT 1 min relative negative divegrence.

TBT positive divergences at lows and a relative negative divegrence today. I considered maybe trading around TBT by selling the long today and re-entering it, but then thought back to why the position was entered, what the edge was, where the probabilities were and how it fits in to the larger picture and decided that just because you can see a signal doesn't mean it's worth moving positions around for.

The TBT (2x inverse TLT-20+ year treasuries which should pullback on a USD/JPY move above $102) and a large positive divegrence and in line status intraday, the short term negative I suspect are going to continue and will migrate until we are at the reversal point in which USD/JPY and the market fail.

 15 min TBT leading positive and one of the many reasons I decided to go with TBT long.


 And TBT 60 min leading positive.

This suggests that TBT is NOT done and TLT has some serious downside, whether that happens very quickly, that's for the market to show us. If these intraday negative keep migrating I suspect it will happen very quickly.

 TLT which is the inverse or opposite of TBT (the long) has the confirming 60 min leading negative, this is one of the main reasons I liked TBT and opened it and why I like the probabilities of being able to go long TLT around the $102 area on a continued pullback.

 15 min TLT confirming TBT with a leading negative divegrence.

10 min also confirming, but showing some of the signs that I was initially a little concerned with in TBT and whether I should maybe try to trade around what could be a TLT bounce and TBT pullback, I decided against that of course.

And the 2 min TLT chart with a positive divgerence which confirms the reasons I was concerned about TBT VERY near term in the first place, however, the reason for choosing the TBT position was to take advantage of a much bigger move, one that is reflected on 15, 30 and 60 min charts, not intraday charts so I'll stay the course, but it does make me wonder about volatility in the next few days.