Monday, May 12, 2014

USD/JPY $102 Update

The early (regular market) move up in USD/JPY was the long anticipated break above $102.

 There's the USD/JPY 1 min with the positive on the ECB comments and a negative in to the move ABOVE $102 finally, as we expected.

We also didn't expect this would last "too long", I can't give you an exact timetable, it's the market that will tell us, but there are already some signs of weakness building in.

 Here's the USD/JPY with ES in putrple, note the correlation has returned as USD/JPY broke ABOVE $102.

 This is the 5 min USD/JPY, it has a negative right now just like the 1 min, we can't go too much further with 3C charts when it comes to pairs, but...

 Looking at the $USDX 1 min it is in inline right now.

 However, the $USDX 5 min has already turned negative

This would hurt the USD/JPY as well as the market, this is something we expected to occur as $102 was finally broken, selling in to strength in the pair.

 More ominous is the $USDX 15 min chart which is leading negative.

The 60 min is where the $USD had its positive divegrence as you can see, now it is in line, the shorter term charts should start moving toward this longer term chart and thus far, it's looking like they will.

 The 60 min Yen had no divergence, but went negative overnight helping the USD/JPY move higher over $102.

However, the 15 min is where the Yen was negative and now it's "starting" to move positive. Again, as we expected.

 The 5 min Yen is still in line, it was negative earlier,  last week, it is now in line.

As is the 1 min chart.

So these charts in the 5-60 min are going to be very important in telling us where and when we may might want to making some stronger moves in to larger short positions.

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