Monday, May 12, 2014

Larger Market Update

Just to give you an idea of the time we likely have (this will depend a lot on how the USD/JPY acts as it is just holding $102.09 for most of the morning), it's not necessarily a race,, the same concepts of reversal process and such should still apply.

Here are several timeframes of the IWM which also tell us a little more about what's going on with this move, the reaction to the move (how smart money is using it) and perhaps when we'll really need to be backing up the truck, but that's based on signals for individual assets so that won't all be at the same time.
 This intraday chart of the IWM , like all of the averages has deteriorated all morning, it almost looks as if there will be a gap fill,  however, this may continue as part of the larger negative we expected in this area. All of the major averages look like this and/or worse.

 IWM migration to the 2 min chart, leading negative.

 3 min...
We don't have intraday negatives on the IWM< 5 min yet, but a positive at the lows of the 9th which we saw in many different assets.

The 15 min chart here looks similar so as we see migration of divergences from the intraday charts, they should start to deteriorate these charts (5, 10 and 15 min).

 Here's IWM 30 min. of course this is not zoomed out to scale, I'm just trying to show that just because we broke over $102 as we were looking for, we don't have to react immediately.

The reversal process is still a concept that will almost certainly be a part of our set up.

This is an IWM 60 min chart, also where the highest probabilities are and the direction in which I want most of my trades unless I have VERY good reason to do otherwise.

There's a clear top in the R2K, now it's going back to USD/JPY and instead of looking for the positives that will send it higher, looking for the negative that will send it lower as well as the market averages and Index futures, with the added watchlist of our short sale assets, but again, not for a pullback like we have seen the last couple of months, for a primary trend, return to stage 4 which should mean significant new lows like the QQQ below the February lows, etc.

The USD/JPY still seems to be running the show though and the most important asset as each average looks a bit different and it's not the rotation of a healthy market (think about the DIA shown earlier today).


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