Tuesday, June 24, 2014

GDX / NUGT Constructive Pullback

Yesterday when I exited half the long NUGT position, Trade Management: GDX / NUGT essentially booking almost all of the gains of 46.5% NUGT Follow Up, I was taking the gains off the table and leaving the initial long position open (as half the position was left in place). The idea was/is that a GDX/NUGT pullback is what I call a "constructive pullback", not distribution, but rather accumulation in to the pullback which makes for an excellent long entry or add to when the pullback looks to have ended as we have confirmation that there was accumulation of the pullback rather than distribution or "in line" which shows no divergence.

Already this morning on a pullback of only 1.22 and 3.60% (GDX/NUGT respectively), we are already seeing signs of accumulation of the pullback which is unusual as the accumulation portion usually starts as price nears the lows of the pullback target area, which tells me either there's a lot of interest in Gold miners (not seeing the same in GLD yet, in fact it has divergences suggesting a pullback as it still has not made the move NUGT/GDX have- which is interesting because miners use to lead gold and it seems as QE is phased out, that pre-QE relationship is coming back with a vengeance).

OR...perhaps the pullback is not going to be as long as initially anticipated as underlying trade and fear in the market seems to have risen dramatically in strange places, but as they say, "To make money, you have to see what the crowd missed".

THE FINAL THING IT TELLS ME IS THAT WE ARE PROBABLY RIGHT ON TRACK THAT THE MARKET'S TRUE FEAR IS THAT INFLATION GETS OUT OF HAND (if it isn't already), CATCHING THE FED FLAT-FOOTED LIKE 2007/2008 AGAIN FORCING THEIR HAND TO HIKE RATES, THE LAST THING THE MARKET WANTS TO SEE AND AS I HAVE SAID NUMEROUS TIMES, THE MARKET WILL FRONT-RUN THE F_E_D, ESPECIALLY IF YELLEN'S COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATIONARY TRENDS BEING "NOISE" CAUSE FEAR THAT THE F_E_D IS NOT TAKING INFLATION SERIOUSLY.

As for the charts thus far today...
 1 min NUGT with a head fake move this morning on the open and accumulation in to the pullback already.

We are seeing this migrate to a leading positive out to 3 min charts already.

We even have migration showing up on the 5 min chart this quickly.

I believe the pullback is still on target, at least until there's positive migration toward this 15 min relative negative divegrence which is one of the reasons I decided to take the gains in NUGT off the table yesterday.
NUGT 15 min.


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