Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Trade Idea: (Short Term Spec. Options) SLV Puts

I suppose you could run the same spec. put options trade with GLD, I just kind of liked the way SLV looked a bit better, this will be a 1/2 size position with a July (standard) expiration with a strike of $20, essentially a pullback trade, which is why it's speculative and using options (thus the max risk is known up front).

Here are the charts between SLV and the 2x leveraged AGQ.

 4 hour AGQ very strong leading positive divegrence with a head fake move just before the upside reversal. This is very similar to GLD in terms of strength, which is why this is a speculative play.

I believe this also tells us what the market is really reacting to and concerned about, inflation and F_E_D rate hikes as inflation forces them in to a corner in which they really have no choice but to hike rates which has been a far bigger concern to the market than the end of QE. I of course can't say for sure, but since there's been so much deterioration after the FOMC, I have a feeling Yellen's dismissiveness of inflationary trends as noise may have the market very concerned, which is seems it already was judging by the strength of the bases in Gold and Silver, natural inflation hedges.


 SLV's 60 min positive.

However, like GDX/NUGT, I believe the PM's will pullback and this intraday 1 min SLV chart seems to paint the same picture.

As does this 2 min AGQ which I'm using as confirmation between two different ETFs in the same asset.

The 3 min SLV is in line until the recent flat range which looks a lot like a reversal process.

And we see it here on a 10-min chart of AGQ (the leveraged ETFs often show signals first or stronger).

And even out to 15 mins. on the SLV chart after near perfect upside confirmation of the trend.

I'll enter this one now, again at half size as a shorter term pullback trade.

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