Quick Market Update

That last post, I do suspect was churning.

The IWM is by far the best relative performer today, but recall what I've said about the IWM the last couple of days this week,

Wednesday, Quick Market Update "However, as noted yesterday, the IWM does look like it wants to play a little catch-up to the other averages as it has had the worst relative performance."

Tuesday: Scan Candidates
Also all of the averages, but the IWM (which I suspected earlier today would see slightly better relative performance in the very near future) 

Tuesday: Market Update
the IWM has seen weaker relative performance and is slipping from its range, I suspect there will be some IWM outperformance on a relative basis just to get it back up in to the range area.

So the IWM's performance is not a surprise, I'll show you why I said that.

Looking at the charts, remember the underlying trade in 3C as the only thing that would get retail to buy after a 3 month range would be a breakout of that 3 month range. You know what 3C showed us and then what BofAML showed us,


The charts from that post, 3C Distribution Confirmed by BofAML

This is net Institutional Selling for last week, the same time we just moved above the range.

Institutional sellers sold EVERY sector except defensive utilities and they did this at the only time they'd have buyers (whether they were selling or selling short.

 This lower chart is the same week and shows who was buying or net buyers, RETAIL

Why? Because that was the week price broke above the range, retail traders will generally only buy on confirmation, this is the entire premise of what we expected when we saw the May 15/16 bear flag that had accumulation.

So, if Institutional clients needed to push the market above the range to have demand to sell in to and did that for the entire week (and the 3C signals were horrible negative), why would today's short squeeze be any different?

The charts 

IWM distribution in to the SS today

 QQQ distribution in to the SS today

SPY distribution in to the SS today.

Take a look at the new trend in the TICK chart intraday.

The earlier uptrend was the short squeeze, we now have more and more stocks selling per bar than being bought and are in to the negative overall.

I HAVE A GAIN IN THE IWM PIUTS THAT EXPIRE TOMORROW, I INTENDED THOSE TO BE NEXT FRIDAY'S EXPIRATION SO I MAY CLOSE THOSE OUT BEFORE THE CLOSE.