Thursday, June 5, 2014

Fade-able Short Squeeze

This is a perfect example of a short squeeze,

 A straight line parabolic move with no pullbacks is a classic sign of a short squeeze, interestingly Treasuries are rallying at the same time.


Not that a straight line move like that needs to be confirmed as a Short Squeeze, but my Most Shorted Index (red) vs SPX (green) for today also shows it, Credit is not buying as HYG lingers.

I think this is going to be a fade-able move for those of you who like intraday fades, I know there are quite a few.

Es is already starting to put in a negative, but this is the least of the evidence.

Aside from the fact that I never trust parabolic moves as they almost always end as badly as they started. I have to wonder as well whether this is our chimney on the igloo as looking at the rounding of the SPX before this move and the .33% gain since last Friday don't really seem like a head fake move of any consequence.


 SPY is not confirming at all, this could have confirmed (2 min) nearly in real time.

DIA 1 min and..

2 min are also not confirming.

 One of the easiest indications to watch for a reversal of the move for a fade trade is the NYSE TICK index.
Note the clean channel of intraday breadth on the initial short squeeze and early warning as TICK is falling out of the channel, this would be one of the first indicators I'd be watching if you are considering fading the move.

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