Thursday, June 5, 2014

Opening Indications

So far the trend this morning is similar to what it has been all week, 1 min charts acting as steering divergences which tend to be largely in line, with longer charts continue to deteriorate which is right about in line with last Friday forecast for this week in continuing what was an immature reversal process which can be seen in the price action's rounding with very little in gains, the SPY has gained 0.33% since Friday's close and looks like this...

 SPY daily chart, today's candle thus far is taking on the shape of a hanging man, one of the things I'd like to see in a reversal candle is increased volume.

The intraday 1 min chart continues to act as a steering mechanism, going negative as price moves too far away from the median and going positive as price drops too far from the median.

This has allowed stocks like NFLX to do what we expected for this week as the charts look good for a short entry, it was the reversal process that was missing, that's why last Friday's forecast for this week said,

"Essentially, if you take the NFLX Trade Idea Follow Up from earlier today and apply the same expectations and the same logic, you have the market forecast in to next week, which doesn't end well for the market. However, you do have time to position, I would not try to chase the market, just be patient and let it come to you."

Referencing NFLX, I had previously (just an hour before) said, 

"As far as adding the other half, I'm going to wait, I'm thinking 1-2 days and I'll show you why....The 15 min chart is leading negative, i'd like to see a new leading low, but more importantly I think the reversal process needs at least another day or 2, the left shoulder's took about 4-days.

Today's charts...
 As has been the trend, this morning's longer charts beyond the 1 min intraday steering divergences continue to deteriorate.

Here's the same chart with a trend view.

SPY 2 min trend. Of course we saw the divergences fro last week (negative/distribution) which have carried over to this week and as BAC so generously provided, the detailed transactions last week showing Institutional money selling everything across the board except the defensive utilities sector and that was still very small accumulation, and who were they selling to? The same reason the SPX had to break above the range, RETAIL. Here's that post...3C Distribution Confirmed by BofAML


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