Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Trade Idea/Set Up: (Longer Term) SCTY

As I'm going through my watchlist, I'm finding a lot of ideas that I know many of you have asked about in the recent past, I don't know that I'll get everything out, but as I am finding them in good looking areas, I want to at least bring them to your attention and perhaps what set-up would interest me as far as starting a position.

SCTY... This is actually, a larger H&S stage 3 top and guess where? Right at the top of a right shoulder, the dominant theme among the watchlist.
 Here's the daily chart with a large H&S top at the top of the right shoulder, but wait until you see how close to the top it really is.

 Candlesticks are great for a quick look at momentum and reversal signals, look at the momentum die off with smaller bodied candles until today's Doji Star which is a reversal candle, also note volume on this run up to form the shoulder, it should be advancing in a healthy move, it's declining.

 As for the 15 min chart which went positive to form the right shoulder as price was sitting on the neckline, it is now leading negative and I suspect it will get a lot worse.

Note the head fake move hitting stops before the upside reversal, I WAS LOOKING FOR THIS HEAD FAKE MOVVE IN SQQQ FOR A LONG ENTRY (mentioned in yesterday's SQQQ idea), look at volume this morning in SQQQ as the head fake move started on the short squeeze, that's exactly what I was looking for in SQQQ for a potential long trade.

SCTY 5 min also turning on a timeframe closer to timing.

The Trend Channel has held the entire right shoulder since 6/10, the trend is broken on a closing basis below $68.70.

Typically with a Doji/Star as a reversal candle, the confirmation candle of a downside reversal in about 50% of the cases over the next day or two, will gap up and then close down forming a bearish engulfing candle, confirming the downside reversal, that gap up with the 1-5 min charts going negative is an ideal entry and the lowest risk entry for a SCTY short position which I'd view as a longer term trending trade because of the size of the top.

I'll be setting alerts for a move/gap above $71.20 to look at a short in SCTY.


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