Monday, July 7, 2014

Filling Out the SCTY Short Position

You may recall there were a few things I was looking for in the initial SCTY trade set up, one of which was a bearish engulfing pattern which is playing out on a longer 2-day chart which is even better as far as I'm concerned. Last week I brought the partial position up to 2/3rds size on the gap up as that was the first step in a bearish engulfing candle and the lowest risk entry (the phased in 2/3rd size position is up about 3% ), I said I'd fill it out on the confirmation, although we haven't closed there yet and there may be a better entry intraday later, I'm not that concerned about it, I'm looking at this from a bigger picture perspective.

Here's the last SCTY update from last week, Thursday July 3rd, SCTY Position Update.

 This is the larger theme in SCTY, a H&S top at the top of the right shoulder, this is one of of my favorite places to get involved in a H&S top, one of only 3.

 The bearish engulfing candle is playing out over 3 days, however on a 2-day chart it looks like this...

 2-day, that's exactly the confirmation of the long wicked star just previous to the last candle that I was looking for.

As for the 3C underlying trend for the right shoulder, there's accumulation at the neck line to form what became a right shoulder and about +50% rally and then a leading negative divegrence/distribution in to the highs and head fake (which is actually the bearish engulfing candle).

 As for timing, here it is on a 3 min chart, pretty much as clean of a set up as we could ask for and the exact set up that was originally posted on 6/30 (the last day of quarter end window dressing), Trade Idea: (Swing Trade Plus) SCTY.

As mentioned above, I'm going to go ahead and bring this up to full size, first target is around the $47-448 area.





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