Monday, July 7, 2014

NFLX Reiteration

I still really like the NFLX short in this area, it looks like a high probability/low risk entry in this area which is the classic rounding top with a head fake move that looks like an "Igloo with a chimney".

 Here's the shape of the NFLX move mentioned above.

The long term 4 hour chart's underlying trend is very ugly, this looks like a significant top in NFLX.

As for the most recent move, (right shoulder-like), there's some early confirmation and then pure 3C negative divergences and they are the worst at what would be the "Chimney" or head fake area (false breakout).

 This is the 1 min intraday at the head fake area, we always want to try to confirm the move as being a head fake or a real breakout, this does not look like a real breakout, but the head fake move we see about 80% of the time before all reversals on any time frame.

And the 10 min chart also seeing the same leading negative divegrence/migration, you saw the 15 min chart above.

Again, I prefer wider stops on new positions, especially tops/bottoms, I prefer to take on fewer shares to allow for a wider stop, with an equity short you can always pyramid them up (see Making More Than 100% on a Short)

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