Monday, July 7, 2014

Quick Market Update

Since I have too many charts to get out before the close, here's a quick update with futures, THERE IS NOT A STRONG CASE TO BE MADE FOR A BOUNCE, if we get one there's a strong case for selling/shorting in to it, but there's not any case I can make for closing shorts or puts in anticipation of a bounce and certainly not at this stage of the game. Just remember what happened after following AAPL for all those months, knowing it was about to see a serious crash, being positioned short and then giving that up to try to get a few percent better position on a anticipated bounce.... end result, no short, AAPL loses -45% over the next 8 months. This is not the time to try to get fancy.

 ES/SPX e-mini futures, like most show some kind of intraday 1 min positive, but these rarely hold up overnight, the 5 min chart is where it's more important as far as next day.

ES 5 min is little better than in line, there's really nothing here to suggest an imminent bounce, although nothing in the market moves in straight lines (at least not for very long and not without nearly a 4 trillion dollar balance sheet expansion which is OVER)

 NQ/NASDAQ 100 1 min intraday futures and a small "W" like small base, about the size for a bounce or the start of building a base for a bounce.

The 5 min here went clearly negative last week, price responded to the 3C forecast, this is about as close as we get to a 5 min positive divegrence, although it's hard to call it that as it may just not have made the next move as 3C lags a bit and could simply be in line (confirmation).

 Russell 2000 futures 1 min positive intraday, but...

The 5 min chart is nearly perfectly in line confirming downside price action.

The market averages for the most part are even worse than this as you'll see.


No comments: