We have two types of consolidation, through price as in a pullback which is why I took NUGT +40 and +50% gains a bit over a week ago on Friday with full intensions of adding the position back on a pullback so long as accumulation during the pullback could be verified which I'd say would be a 90-95% positive probability, or we can consolidate through time. You may remember I wrestled with the NUGT position and when to take some off the table, as to what was taken off, since then we only gave up 6% of additional gains which considering the time and market exposure is more than acceptable.
However, the issue now is whether GLD and miners (GDX/NUGT) are consolidating through time or still awaiting a pullback which I anticipated to move to the 22-day moving average which is about where the gaps were at the time. What makes the issue critical is both assets are right at stage 2 resistance/breakout levels and any negative divegrence in either seems to be met with improving positive divergences shortly after.
Gold futures 60 min had a clear negative divegrence suggesting a pullback and there's a high degree of correlation between gold and miners, except with miners in more of a leading position like they use to be many years ago before F_E_D accommodative policies.
Since, you can see improvement to the far right, I wouldn't say the divergence is negated, but it does raise questions about correcting through time rather than price.
The faster 30 min chart shows more detail for gold futures.
As does the 15 min chart.
Gold had a range, a head fake below the range that was accumulated, a breakout above the range and the diagonal trendline is GLD's base/resistance that marks stage 2.
GDX is in virtually the same situation.
This is a 5 day chart, note the Stars that denote a correction right at resistance of the base.
After GLD's long signal, I suspected a pullback to the blue 22-day, but it's now above the gap.
GDX 1-day sitting right at base resistance. A pullback here would actually make me feel a lot better about buying either.
The 60 min GDX chart only has a small negative divegrence for a pullback, the larger base (not seen) is huge.
The 30 min showing a clear leading negative divegrence that has since seen repair.
For now I'm going to wait on adding the NUGT long back, but if I had the ability to hold it and wasn't worried about the draw down and opportunity cost, I'd hold NUGT long as there's a monster base here and I suspect stage 2 mark-up will lead to at least an Intermediate uptrend, maybe a primary bull market trend.
Other than the base, this one has been very tough to manage as far as stops, so I suppose I shouldn't expect anything different, I'm just waiting for that signal that I can't ignore.
No comments:
Post a Comment