GDX/NUGT Update

You may recall yesterday's post showing short to intermediate term charts in GDX and NUGT improving and some very drastically in a very short period of time, as in a day or two, some longer. There's no doubt that this is a long term primary uptrend I want to take place in, but where to enter has become very challenging.


Yesterday I posted the charts I am talking about in Trade Idea: GDX / NUGT and said I'd let you know when I was considering an entry, then by the end of the day, I was still uncomfortable and posted, No long Entry for NUGT/GDX yet.

In this morning's A.M. Update I wrote,

"The Minutes are released at 2 p.m. if they weren't already leaked, judging by yesterday's trade activity, I'd guess they were leaked, which may have me reconsidering some positions I was considering such as NUGT, I'm thinking it may see a head fake move through resistance and then a pullback, but I'll wait to see if that happens and what underlying trade looks like if it does."

Depending on what the minutes say, gold and gold miners could have a severe reaction, if the minutes seem unconcerned about inflation, then gold and miners are likely to drop quickly even though they should recover fine because wee know despite what Yellen wants us to think, there is a strong inflationary trend building, thus the reason gold and miners came alive in the first place, but again, it's about the headline knee jerk reaction at first.

 Here's the long term inverse H&S base, very strong and you can see GDX/NUGT are sitting right below resistance. Either way, whether a real move or not, we are very low in the trend for GDX which should make a long term primary uptrend lasting at least a year based on the size of the base.

 As suspected in the pre-market A.M. Update, GDX/NUGT are above resistance of the base, but look at the volume. Volume which is confirmed for the base, is very important for an Inverse H&S confirmation, but the breakout volume is the most important, it should be the highest by far.

Taking a closer look on a 60 min chart, the white line on volume is the level of volume on the breakout move, it's negligible where it should be roaring. This makes me a little nervous and makes me think twice about what the charts I showed yesterday improved so fast, perhaps for a pre-Minutes breakout because after the minutes...?

And we still have this to deal with...

 No matter the improvement, the NUGT 15 min chart is still negative here where it should be leading positive and...

The GDX 10 min is worse, it's not even trying to confirm today.

Anything below 5 mins is a mess, there's no confirmation between timeframes or NUGT/GDX/DUST, I suspect there will be shortly after the minutes are out and taken in a bit.