Wednesday, July 9, 2014

More Hawkish Than Expected

After a quick glance, the takeaway is the F_E_D giveth, the F_E_D taketh away, even if they want to say they are not in the business of bursting bubbles, that's the net effect just like driving rates to Zero created the monster in the first place. Stocks are not up on valuations or on expectations for the future, they are up because they are the only game in town with interest rates at essentially zero.

That's about to change and the F_E_D obviously is more involved and will be more involved in bursting the bubble than Yellen wants to admit...


  • SOME FED OFFICIALS SAW INVESTORS AS TOO COMPLACENT ON RISKS
  • *FED SAW INSUFFICIENT INVESTOR UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMY, RATES
If the F_E_D has nothing to do with administering the market or popping bubbles, why are they even talking about it being too frothy, too complacent, not paying enough attention or discounting the fact that rates are likely to rise sooner than expected as James Bullard of the St. Louis F_E_D said (remember at the time I said "No F_E_D president would come out and say what he said without Yellen's blessing", well there it is in the minutes).
 

For now I'm leaving the shorts that are in place alone and I'm not adding to the IWM call. If there's a more sustained pullback that sees accumulation I may add to the calls at that point, but for now if the market bounces we are in good shape to open or add to short positions, if it doesn't bounce, we are in good shape with short positions that are already open.

Everything else is pretty much the cherry on top.

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