Market Update

The market never makes it easy, that's for sure.

I'm starting to think that either there's a change in sentiment since yesterday or the market is stalling, waiting on the knee jerk reaction from the minutes to make any remaining moves because there's very little going on today compared to yesterday (remember one of the other scenarios I thought possible although less likely was yesterday's intraday positive divergences were just enough to hold off the downside that had set in early yesterday, almost like the NY F_E_D's trading desk activated the "Plunge Protection Team", or the "President's Working Group on Financial Markets " as they are officially known, signed in to law by Ronald Reagan by executive order 12631 March of 1998, yes the PPT is real... Read more here.

Here are the charts which are no where near as clean as yesterday and not doing what I suspected they would yesterday, but a knee jerk reaction to the F_O_M_C minutes might be what gets us there, as always, we'll let the market tell us.

So far here's what we have... 

From 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. the NYSE TICK was swinging wildly between + and - 1000, then mellowed to a +/- 750 range and now has mellowed even more to a tight +/- 250/500 range. In other words, the market or market of stocks is moving a whole lot less as we get closer to the release of the minutes at 2 p.m.

The USd/JPY and AUD/JPY are choppy, but trendless, EUR/JPY got a boost, maybe something Draghi said? In any case, it didn't translate over to Index futures which seem to be in a holding pattern, waiting on the 2 p.m. release of the minutes from 6/18 F_O_M_C.

 QQQ intraday, the red box in today, this is only a 1 min chart, but it seems almost as if higher prices are being shut down by market makers or specialists.

The 2 min QQQ positive from yesterday and the same trend mentioned above today thus far.

The 5 min chart is overall in a good place, not seeing the smaller negative divegrences, they aren't large enough to show up here yet, this is one of the few reasons I think the initial idea of a bounce is still on track.

And at 15 min, the negatives that have been taking the Q's down, nothing has changed here, thus the reason I suspect a bounce would be all that we could expect and if that's so, I'd want to use it as I showed yesterday and last night.

IWM 1 min seeing similar behavior, stronger yesterday, today almost as if higher price moves are being intentionally suppressed, but not much in the way of intraday accumulation, it reminds me a lot of the TICK chart.

IWM 15 min as a reminder of why I would short in to higher prices if we got that bounce.

Note the dramatic change in character as soon as Q2 was over/Window dressing.

And the larger IWM picture through the suspected top area, 3C is at the worst leading negative divegrence of the entire pattern.

SPY 1 min almost the same trend as the other two above intraday

A closer look shows there's almost nothing going on.

The 2 min chart is more of an accrual of all activity since yesterday, still in leading positive position so I'd guess a bounce is still on track, but I also suspect initial knee jerk volatility on the release of the minutes is going to look very confusing.

SPY 15 min, again why I would use any bounce to short in to and the dramatic change in character as soon as Window Dressing and the QTR was complete.

SPY long term 4 hour through what I suspect is a broadening top, again, like the IWM, 3C is at new leading negative lows.

Intraday DIA actually looks the worst, this is part of the reason I wonder if we don't see an initial knee jerk lower ad perhaps that is accumulated rather than the "W" shape base, it's hard to make such assumptions though based on 1 intraday chart.

The DIA 5 min overall, still in decent enough position for a bounce.

And 60 min , look at the 3 tries for 17k and 3C at each, again, another major market average at a new leading negative low, this is why I think we really don't have much time left along with other signals like yields, treasuries, SKEW, utilities out-performance, etc.