Leading Indicators Bearish

We already know that the macro picture is bearish, what I'm trying to determine is whether Wall St. can put together a bounce as imagined yesterday with a larger "W" base which would require stocks to pull back.

The early data we are getting in says it is likely they'll come down, whether that's a pullback for a larger base or the market coming down, I don't think we'll know until they start coming down and we can see if there's accumulation (in which case we likely bounce and sell short in to the bounce) or there's none, in which case we likely make a lower low.

Looking quickly at Leading Indicators, a number of them suggest we are coming down, it's too early to say which way though, for a bounce or in bigger trouble than the market realizes.

Treasuries have rallies with stocks which is unusual, a risk off trade with a risk on trade, that has caused some bearish signals.

 10 year rates vs the SPX, you can see what happened to the SPX last time they diverged, they are doing so again right now.

 5 year rates did the same and are doing the same right now.

Pro sentiment is negative on the day and in fact...

On the quarter, as soon as window dressing ended, July 1 they are sellers.

HY credit has been stable the last couple of days, it just sold off hard, "Credit leads, stocks follow".

I'm just waiting to see if what signals the market gives us, but at this point, I would just be patient until we know, I suspect we will know soon judging by leading indicators above.