Friday, July 25, 2014

GLD/SLV/GDX Bounce

I first mentioned this yesterday near the close, a probable GLD / SLV and GDX bounce. These have been very difficult to forecast as far as signals, but that makes sense considering this range, unless there are strong 3C signals, I don't enter the trade and the signals have been weak as there has really been no trend worth trading, there's just too much risk in this range so the lack of 3C signals has been a forecast in itself...
 GLD rangebound, an easy area to lose money as these are like portfolio grinders.


However it does look like we will see a near term bounce. I'm not as interested in playing the bounce as perhaps shorting it depending on the confirmation or divergence we get on movement.



 GLD 3 min is building a leading positive divegrence looking like a bounce is imminent, this is still a minor divegrence which would give us some idea that this is likely a bounce only at this point.

 GLD 5 min

SLV's 5 min is leading positive as well, in line with a small bounce. It's not just the 5 min chart that limits the bounce, but the size of the accumulation area, the larger the accumulation area, the bigger the move, again it's like gas in the tank, a gallon only takes you so far.

 The larger picture in SLV on a much stronger 30 min chart suggests more downside, significantly more before SLV is ready for a decent long position, but we'll need to see accumulation in to a pullback for that trade to work.

 GDX/Gold Miners 3 min is also building a positive divegrence looking like a bounce is coming and...

The 3x long GDX/Gold Miners, NUGT, has a 5 min leading positive divegrence, you can see the preceding leading negative that sent it lower.

Just some possible trade set ups that will come to us, reducing risk and giving us better entries.

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