The Q's and the IWM have enough of an intraday divergence they should be able to fill their gaps from this morning, honestly I'm a bit surprised they haven't made that move yet.
Credit is falling off, this time HYG (HY Corp. Credit) which is used often to goose the market higher, it had a positive divegrence last week before it started moving higher in support of the market's bounce attempt.
It's the dislocation or leading negative divegrence of intraday charts that seems to be an issue.
There are several assets I like a lot such as FAZ (long), but XLF is so close to a resistance level that it should have broken on a head fake move during this week's bounce. I'm still a bit on the fence whether to go ahead with a position in an asset like that or see if it can do what it should heave already done, which would be a much better entry.
I can see in intraday breadth (TICK Index), there have been a couple of attempts to move the market in to the gaps, but they just can't hold.
I'm not sure where the VIX (spot) will close today, but if it does close a bit closer to its intraday highs, that would be a pretty strong indication the market is about to correct on the downside as there's still that perfect rising 3 methods, I've been watching the VIX futures pretty intensely to see if there's any hint there.
The last 7 candles (daily) of VIX make up the bullish consolidation/continuation pattern, Rising 3 methods. Wednesday we saw a downside loss of momentum with a Doji Star, yesterday a bullish engulfing candle of Wednesday's Doji which would be confirmation of the reversal although not a very large bodies engulfing candle and today we have a higher move in VIX, it would look a lot stronger if it didn't leave much of an upper wick and closed near intraday highs which would look a lot like the VIX is getting ready to make a move higher, likely a higher high, the market moves opposite the VIX.
Bottom line, the market seems to really be struggling to fill a pretty small gap. Nothing about the bigger picture has changed.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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