Friday, July 25, 2014

A.M. Update

There wasn't much of notable interest last night in breadth and other indicators beyond the broad weakness seen all week on this bounce attempt, of course the AMMZN 10% earnings drop was notable along with V's earnings miss, V accounts for 8% of the Dow's weight, the largest component by weighting.

We did see the 5th consecutive MSI short squeeze on the open and the MSI fading intraday worse than it has all week...they just can't get a short squeeze to stick.

Of course VIX's Rising 3 Methods, bullish candlestick pattern is well intact and looks as if it's ready to shoot higher and closed higher yesterday as well. There has been a clear outperformance of VXX (Short term VIX futures), well beyond their normal correlation.

Bonds sold off yesterday, but that seems to be a reaction to yields testing 2014 lows the day before. Of course gold was down, we saw the $1 billion futures sale yesterday during morning hours, a near daily event at this point. Silver saw its worst day in 6 months and High Yield Credit continues to negatively diverge form stocks.

There was no Dominant Price/Volume Relationship yesterday. Five of nine S&P sectors closed mildly green with Utilities leading. Again, only 120 of the 239 Morningstar Industry/Sub-industry groups closed green.

The SKEW Index rose modestly and is still at elevated levels as it has been all month.

Once again all of the A/D lines (well at least R2K, R3K and NASDAQ Composite) all ticked lower again as did most breadth indicators, this was somewhat minor. The VIX chart is probably one of the most notable beyond what we have already seen and posted intraday.

US Index futures got a little help from a USD/JPY overnight ramp just as Europe opened, but it did little more than stem the falling futures.

The Index Futures' 3C charts have been telling the story of weakness through this week's bounce and new S&P all time highs, VERY WEAK.

In addition to Bob Shiller's CAPE that is flashing red lights, Warren Buffet's favorite measure, Market Value of US Companies vs. Gross National Product Before Inflation, is near new Bubble record highs, the highest since 2000.

Remember today is weekly op-ex and even those are pinned until about 2 p.m. , we'll see where, typically around Thursday's close, but we have gapped through that, we'll see in early indications if there will be a bounce toward yesterday's close.

I'll be spending a good portion of my time going through watchlist/Trade possibilities as I obviously feel the IWM bounce is not working out as I closed the IWM hedge calls yesterday.

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