Friday, July 25, 2014

IYT Charts

Again, what caught my eye about IYT was the longer term or larger underlying flow of trade and the  speed at which multiple long term timeframes were hit.

According to Technical Analysis and specifically Dow Theory, Industrials and Transports should confirm, for a long time though I've made the case that I believe the Russell 2000 rather than the Dow 30 makes a better comparison as Dow theory is from the early 1900's when Industrials were dominant, the US is a services economy now. The R2K is a much broader economic indicator than the Dow 30 and I think better suited to modern Dow Theory.

 Daily chart of IYT/Transports (green) vs. Russell 2000 (red). Transports do have a similar bearish Ascending Wedge price pattern like the SPX. I often look for a break above the pattern (or below a Descending Wedge) and a divergence in the area for entries.

The daily candlesticks are also calling a confirmed reversal off Wednesday's Shooting Star" reversal candle which has since been confirmed.

 The 2 min chart's trend shows an area of accumulation sending IYT higher, but it's the recent leading negative trend that interests me.

 This is a 10 min chart, a lot less detail than a 2 min chart, but a clearer trend, it is also leading negative in the same area

As is this 15 min chart

And a little surprisingly the 30 min and now even out to ...

A 60 min chart.

There's a relative negative divegrence at the red arrow, then 3C makes a new lower low or a leading negative divegrence.

One of the things that's a bit different about IYT which has confirmation in DJ-20 is this doesn't look like the normal distribution pattern of migration from short timeframes to long timeframes over a longer period, this looks like it was almost all done at the same time.

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