Today you get some sense of what AAPL's weight can do to the NASDAQ 100. While AAPL's weighting via NASDAQ in the NASDAQ 100 is a proprietary secret that can be had for a $10,000 a year membership to NASDAQ, in the past it has accounted for up to about 20% of the NDX's weight which at the time would have been the same as the bottom 50 weighted NASDAQ 100 stocks COMBINED. In other words, AAPL's movement and effect on the NASDAQ 100 was equal to the combined weight of 50 other NASDAQ stocks (lowest weighted) combined, so it has quite a bit of influence on the NASDAQ 100.
Looking at AAPL's charts and reading what I have, I don't think there was insider knowledge about yesterday's hacking disclosure, except for part of the day.
This 60 min negative divegrence that finally formed in AAPL seems to be on its own and not a part of the hacking story.
The 30 min chart would seem to verify that, EXCEPT, the area at the red arrow at the flat range in price, looks a lot like someone knew something was coming out.
Here's where it gets a little interesting for the NASDAQ and AAPL. AAPL saw significant volume on the decline...
The decline has the largest volume we can see on this chart going back months. This means, there were undoubtedly quite a few orders that went through at market and a market maker has certain advantages for making a market in a stock, but one of the disadvantages is they must post a bid and ask so if there's no order to match up, the market maker has to take the other side of the order and with a decline that sharp and with that much volume, I'm willing to bet AAPL market makers are sitting on some hefty losses that can onlt be corrected with an AAPL upside move so they can balance things out, 1) by buying AAPL shares on the cheap down here and 2) by running AAPL up, trying to sell the inventory taken on at lower prices and blend that with gains from cheap shares picked up in this area, they can likely get back to break even, maybe better, but
in my view, they need to run AAPL back up to get out of this little hole that is part of being a market maker or specialist (these are for at market trades only, not limits).
The 5 min chart has a small leading positive divegrence, this would serve 2 functions, buying AAPL on the cheap and trying to unload shares taken on during the decline as well as shares at the lows to try to get out at an average level that is either break even or better. The second reason would be to absorb enough supply to push AAPL higher, like a typical cycle the market runs, just in compressed form.
The 3 min chart shows accumulation at lows and it looks like AAPL may come down again for another round, that was a lot of volume and but may need a stronger base. This may be what the HYG divegrence was about or someone has basically just done the same math. In any case,
one thing you might do (that I'll do) is put some price alerts around the $99-$98.50 area.
If AAPL makes a little momentum head fake move below support at $98.58 and there's good short term accumulation of a stop run at that area, that would make for an interesting short term AAPL Call trade with maybe something like some weekly options, either this or next week, but I'd definitely want to see a run on stops to lower premiums and make that trade worthwhile.
Of course this would likely have NDX implications short term and thus market implications as I doubt the SPX is going to move significantly away from a NDX bump. This would also likely have AAPL implications for the longer term positions. That was a LOT of volume and I think that handicaps AAPL from making too strong of a head fake move, so I'd be looking to have a long call position if it sets up and about the time I close that, I'd be looking to open an AAPL equity short position trade.
Of course each step needs to be confirmed, but that's why I set price alerts.
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