Wednesday, September 3, 2014

EOD Update

There's VERY little support in the market, some of the best or only is the Q's and that's likely from AAPL, but the HYG move or accumulation (very small, short term), isn't coincidence. It looks like it's either to halt today's decline or to give that little bounce a lot of the assets we are looking at shorting like FSLR, need to make it over the hill.

Otherwise, things are really deteriorating and that one foot near a little bounce spring could easily slip off the edge of the cliff and if it doesn't, that little bounce spring is meant to send the market over the edge of the cliff, it's really just individual asset timing/entries at this point and probably getting past the ECB tomorrow.

 SPY is no better than in line intraday, however this isn't an edge either way, it's not a divegrence so it's just confirming the flopping around the market is doing, it's not pointing to even very small short term intraday strength, only HYG is doing that at this point.

This looks like an IWM divergence, it's not, it's in line, only the VERY small white area the last 15 minutes or so is even close to a positive divegrence.

On the other hand, right next door at the 2 min chart it is leading to a new negative low and very ugly.

The IWM 5 min is right there as far as timing for the reversal process, in fact with a chart like this I'm surprised we haven't already seen a head fake move as this is what 3C would look like, or perhaps we have seen something about as close to a head fake move as the averages will get with this morning's gap up unless there's some external stimulus like the ECB or HYG.

 The Q's have a small 1 min positive, I suspect it's because of AAPL

 With the same 1 min positive...

 QQQ 2 min is leading negative and confirming all price weakness today.

The 3 min is also leading negative, I didn't draw on the chart because I wanted you to see it for yourself as it's pretty obvious.

And the HYG divegrence on a 3 min chart and that's about as far as it goes, but with the other levers like the carry trades failing, it seems there was little choice other than to go back to HYG, apparently the tickling the ask higher on 1 share trades was not enough with today's downdraft as soon as cash markets opened, remember overnight we hit an all time new high, as soon as the cash open, we sold off hard (not just price, but 3C distribution).

I'll have more as I update internals and take a look around.

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