NFLX Update

Well looking at the AAPL with its weighting on the NASDAQ 100, it's not hard to see why it's the big laggard today. This is the very fine line I was talking about yesterday between a strong upside head fake move and falling off a cliff as a head fake move is just about the last thing that happens right before a reversal and in this context we are talking about an upside head fake move to short in to and a downside reversal or falling off a cliff. AAPL was in a good spot yesterday, but didn't have the perfect signals, apparently some news and concerns broke and hurt AAPL, but this is part of the reason I've been talking a lot more about entering in staggered phases which is one of my favorite entries, but your RISK MANAGEMENT MUST REFLECT THIS PLAN BEFORE YOU ENTER THE FIRST SHARE.  Dollar cost averaging a position to the point it is larger than your risk management allows is not acceptable.

AAPL-2.74% right now.

As for NFLX, it's very close to a head fake move, actually probably right at it, although volume is one of the things you want to see on a potential head fake move as that's what the move is all about, creating demand in this case to sell or short in to on a breakout move from some technical area that is very obvious like a new high. NFLX had the volume on the move this morning and has an interesting daily candle.

 Here's the volume this morning on the breakout move which looks like it's being sold pretty hard, I would definitely consider a partial position here (short) and maybe a full position, but I'd rather give it a little time to develop a bit more through the day and if the daily candle turns out like it's on track, today looks as if it may be a very nice entry/add-to position in NFLX.

I prefer short equity at this point, but if I were going with options as this is a longer term position trade and we have the ECB tomorrow and NFP Friday, I'd want as long an expiration as I could afford.

 The Daily candle broke above local resistance, the breakout to a new high which is a great head fake as long as retail buys it which it looks like they did judging by volume above.

I'd like to see this "Shooting Star" (bearish reversal candle) hold through the close and volume to shoot up much higher, then I'd probably fill out the NFLX short position, of course depending on what the rest of the market looked like, but I'd definitely have no problem with a phased entry here.

The intraday 1 min is still in line with price, I'd want to see this give out and it can happen very quickly. Almost everything else has already given out in NFLX.

For example...

 The intraday chart at the reversal area / process as well as what looks like a false breakout or failed breakout thus far, it's still early so I personally want to be a little patient, any entry up around this level is an excellent entry, the timing and confirmation are what's important right now.

 The 10 min showing the last accumulation area with a head fake/stop run just before its upside reversal and in to distribution with what looks like a possible head fake move today, in the form of a failed/false breakout.

 The 30 min chart and an accumulation area to the left, distribution in the middle with a little head fake as the trend ended, the August move has a clean leading negative divegrence which is what what expected from this move off breadth lows of 20% of NYSE stocks > their 40-day moving average in early August.

Of course the longer term reason I like NFLX short, the 4 hour chart leading negative through a lot of the year, meaning large institutional distribution.

I'll continue to watch, set alerts and update you, maybe even fill out the position.