There are so many assets I'm trying to look at at one time as quickly as possible, however I have to take a moment at least beyond the intraday updates and remind you of the 3C macro picture as we have clearly seen the Leading Indicators macro themes, Futures Macro themes (I'll be covering Euro & EUR/USD shortly) and Market Breadth Macro themes, I'd be remiss if I didn't cover market macro themes as well so I'll try to do that with the QQQ before moving on to specific assets and trade opportunities, although I'm fully short SQQQ, SRTY and FAZ and will remain that way unless I see something that convinces me otherwise, but these macro themes individually or certainly together, argue for a very big downside opportunity beyond the October rally as I have maintained since before the October rally started when we were predicting it.
General intraday market update...
1 min intraday was going negative before the minutes, that continues.
The 2 min chart that would not confirm prices yesterday and judging by today, rightly so , instead calling the move distribution, is also deteriorating, thus it looks like the concept of migration is taking place since the minutes.
And the 3 min chart which also called distribution yesterday is also showing an overall negative divegrence and additional deterioration since the minutes.
I'll try to cover UPRO as the leveraged ETFs often show earlier and stronger signals than the averages.
IWM 1 min with continued intraday deterioration
2 min with migration and deterioration and the trend...
IWM since turning down has been either in line or negative, but it has kept a beautiful 3C trend.
The Daily Trend Channel for the last several swings shows the trends and stop levels on the close, it's rather wide, especially for this particular trend so I've adjusted it to a more appropriate level below.
On a 60 min chart I've widened the channel's standard deviation by increasing width from 10 to 20, 2 SD's and the periods as this is a shorter timeframe to AVGC20 rather than 10 and channel width replaced the 11 bars with 21, Thus the Trend Channel has held the entire IWM uptrend without a single violation, the hash mark (red) to the left was the current stop which was not hit. The hash to the right is the current stop that was taken out on the close already, Friday, Monday and Tuesday all on a closing basis.
This is the intraday TICK which after initial minutes volatility has moved to a downtrend and is below -1500. There's some minor volatility in it since this capture minutes ago.
QQQ
The intraday 1 min like the others seeing deterioration which started before the minutes.
migration to the 2 min chart which called distribution yesterday as well
And now migration to the 3 min chart (,these are in the context of a new divergence starting at the positive at this morning's lows.
The bigger picture 15 min chart is pretty plain to see.
As is the 30 min chart and a similar 60 min chart.
The macro picture is below...
The 2 hour chart showing #1 the late July divergence ; #2 the early August divergence/base, #3 the August stage 3 top and distribution in to the head fake move in September at #4 with a decline to the October lows, this
put in the lower low we were expecting when first calling for the August rally days before it started.
And of course #6 speaks for itself, this is the kind of divergence I expected to see being the rally itself was a face ripping move meant to drastically change sentiment which at the time was about as negative as it gets with everyone calling a top.
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